Beyond the Numbers

For welfare and development, Geography matters!

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Beyond the Numbers
The Economies of the Regions of the Philippines: Trends and Structures

by Jose Ramon G. Albert, Ph.D.1                                              Filipino Version


Last week, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) Technical Staff were fully engaged in the conduct of the Twelfth National Convention on Statistics (NCS), held from Oct 1-2 at EDSA Shangrila.  The NCS was a big success owing to the quality papers presented, the quality discussions, and the excellent coordination of the NSCB Technical Staff with all NCS participants.

The week before the NCS, I was tasked to organize, on behalf of the PH government, with the support of Director General Arsenio M. Balisacan of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), and the cooperation of Partnership in Statistics for Development in the 21st Century (PARIS 21), a Side Event to the United Nations General Assembly on “Engineering a Data Revolution.” These two events showed that there is much interest and excitement now about statistics, especially as they help us describe the progress in society (or the lack of it). Since 2015, the target date for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), is fast approaching, there is much discussion now on the post-MDG agenda. There is growing consensus that aside from the current thrust on poverty reduction, there will be a push for other important goals, especially on the environment and governance, and likely these will all be called the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda.  There is much hype on statistics these days, especially as there are alternative data sources aside from the traditional censuses, sample surveys, and administrative reporting systems that are the basis of official statistics.  One of these alternative data sources is “big data”, which have big volume, velocity and variety. These are also called data exhaust, as it is a by-product of electronic and web-based customer transactions, social media (facebook, twitter, instagram), tracking and sensor devices (from GPS, and climate sensors).

The world is fast changing, and statistics, especially official statistics, have to take note of this emerging data revolution.  But even the data revolution does not mean an overthrow of the current sets of statistics, including economic statistics such as the gross regional domestic product, which provide a useful picture of the economic conditions in our regions.

About the Gross Regional Domestic Product

The Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in each of the geo-political regions of the country. It is the share of the 17 regions to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).The GRDP is compiled on an annual basis by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) Technical Staff, and released one semester after the reference period. After a series of GRDP immersion workshops since 2000, the computation of the GRDP was transferred to the NSCB Regional Units from the Economic Statistics Office of NSCB in 2005.  Starting 2009, the NSCB Regional Units conduct an annual news conference (usually held on the third Thursday of July) on the performance of the regional economy simultaneously in nine regions where NSCB Technical Staff are present, viz., the Cordilllera Administrative Region (CAR), and Regions I, V, VI, VIII, IX, X, XI and XII.

The first conduct of the news conference was replete with varied experiences for the NSCB regional units and highlighted the need for skills in properly communicating statistics. Initially, media representatives were hesitant to ask questions prompting the moderator in Region VI to comment that either the presentation was so clear that everybody understood or nobody understood at all. Other media representatives asked for layman’s definitions/explanation of GDP and GNP and how they are different. The Tagalog definitions “Gawa Dito sa Pilipinas” for GDP and “Gawa ng Pilipino” for GNP came in handy2- “Gawa Dito sa Pilipinas” to denote goods and services produced within the Philippine’s economic territory and “Gawa ng Pilipino” to denote goods and services produced by Filipinos where ever they are.

More questions followed, such as, why the high GRDP growth of the region cannot be felt by the common tao, why poverty incidence is still high despite the high growth of the GRDP, and so on. Invariably, and quite understandably, people relate GRDP with the poverty situation of the region. NSCB Regional Staff and resource persons during the news conference took pains in explaining that high GRDP growths do not immediately translate to poverty reduction, that it would take high GRDP growths sustained for several years to have positive impact on poverty situations, and that GRDP is a different measure and uses different methodology than that of the poverty, and that GRDP measures the economic output while poverty describes welfare and living standards. Nevertheless, everybody was convinced that high GRDP growth is needed and how to sustain such growth is a challenge to our policy makers and planners for the common tao to eventually feel its positive impact. Even national poverty figures and GDP growth may seem off tangent, but in the long run, we would expect that high sustained growth in the economy would translate to better income, and lower poverty.  The thrust in the current Philippine Development Plan is ensuring sustained and inclusive growth and development.

GRDP Methods and Revisions

Prior to 2009, the GRDP estimates of the country used the 1993 United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA) with 1985 as the base year, i.e. economic outputs were valued at 1985 prices to track movements of regional economies in real terms. In 2009, the Philippine System of National Accounts (PSNA) migrated to the 2003 SNA, and eventually to the 2008 SNA.The National Accounts of the Philippines (NAP), and consequently the regional accounts, adopted 2000 as the base year following the recommendations of the joint Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) Workshop on Rebasing and Linking National Accounts Series held in Bangkok, Thailand on March 21-24, 2001.

The compilation of the GRDP adopted the same changes made for the overall revision and rebasing of the GDP. These changes are as follows:

  1. The shift of Base Year from 1985 to 2000;

  2. New concepts/definitions from the 1993/2008 SNA international guidelines for the compilation of national accounts;

  3. New standards and classification systems used including the expansion/reclassification/highlighting of some industries, activities, and commodities

  4. Improved Data Support: Use of revised, updated, and new data

  5. Improved estimation methodology

    • Methodological Improvements

    • Better deflators: Use of Updated prices/More appropriate price indices

    • Updated parameters and assumptions used

     

The revised/rebased NAP and the regional accounts series adopted the 2009 Philippine Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC) which is consistent with the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC). Further, the revised/rebased series now utilizes improved estimation methodologies, varied data sources and updated parameters.

Policy Uses of GRDP

GRDP estimates released by the NSCB Technical Staff are critical inputs in policy formulation, investment promotion and economic forecasting and targeting in the regions.  As monitored, the GRDP estimates are used as inputs in the formulation/preparation of annual regional development plans and annual socio-economic development reports, as basis in the identification of sectors/industries in terms of investment promotion and support services as well as in monitoring the performance of the regional economy and its sectors/subsectors. They are likewise used in analyzing trends/forecasting for planning purposes. Other uses of the GRDP include:

  • input for estimating minimum wage determination;

  • input in analysing the trends of the sectoral economy for business forecasting and creating regional business/investment opportunities in the region to further boost the local economy;

  • inputs in plan formulation, rationalization of assistance in the region;

  • inputs in the formulation of Socio-Economic Development Plan for Conflict Affected Areas in Mindanao;

  • basis for setting targets for high valued crops production, planning and target setting for the next five years; 

  • inputs to market study conducted in the regions; inputs to the regional consultation and in identifying region’s demand on the Project Jobs fit;

  • baseline in the Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System matrices of indicators as guides for the assessment of sectoral programs in the Medium Term Philippine Development Plan and approved by the Regional Development Council;

  • and by the RDC and LCEs as inputs to the State of the Region’s/Province’s Address.

Philippine GDP from 2009 to 2012

The Philippine economy wavered between 2010 to 2011, but immediately recovered steam between 2011 and 2012. The economy was consistently driven by the service sector (Table 1) which accounted for more than half of the total GDP (Table 2). It was noted that services and industry led the economy from 2009-2010 and 2011-2012 whjile Agriculture and Service sectors were the main boosters of the economy from 2010-2011.  According to NEDA, the recent growth in Industry provides optimism that economic gains will be sustained.

The GRDP of Island Groups: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao

The Luzon Island Group is the biggest contributor to the country’s economy from 2010 to 2012 with an average share of 37.3 percent. However, its share continued to drop from 37.5 percent in 2010 to 37.1 percent in 2012. This is in contrast to the continuous increase of the Mindanao Island Group’s share within the period: from 14.2 percent in 2010 to 14.4 percent in 2012.  Meanwhile, the share of the Visayas Island Groups to the GDP remained the smallest at 12.6 percent in 2010, 12.9 percent in 2011 and 12.7 percent in 2012. (Table 3)

Mindanao posted the fastest growth rate among the island groups in 2012 at .8.2 percent. Luzon followed with an accelerated growth of 6.3 percent from a 3.3 percent growth in 2011. The Visayas, which is the fastest growing island group in 2011, just maintained its pace in 2012 at 5.6 percent. (Table 4)

Industry fuelled Mindanao’s economy growing at a fast 13.3 percent pace. Services was the main driver of the Visayas and Luzon Groups’ economy.  (Table 5)
Luzon island group’s share to the industry sector output was 54.6 percent. AHFF was likewise dominated by the Luzon Island Group with its 48.0 percent share. (Table 6)

Trends in the Growth of Regional Economies

Between 2010 and 2012, Region XIII (Caraga) exhibited the highest growth rate at an annual average of 9.5 percent. Region VIII, on the other hand posted the slowest growth at an annual average of negative 2.1 percent. Within the period, more varied trends were observed among the regions: (Table 7)

  • Regions II, IVB, VI and XII accelerated continuously

  • Economies of CAR, Region III and Region VIII continued to decelerate NCR and Region I exhibited wavy trends

  • Region IX’s economy improved by 12.3 percentage points between 2010 and 2012, the highest increment among regions.

  • Region VIII showed the biggest slowdown at 8.3 percentage points within the period

  • Regions V, IX, X, & XI surpassed their 2010 & 2011 growth rates.

  • Regions VII, XIII & the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) improved their economic performance in 2012 but at a slower pace than their 2010 recorded growth

  • Region VII and Region XIII were the most consistent regions in the country in terms of GRDP growth landing in the top three spots

  • Region II’s economy continued to improve placing fourth in 2012 in terms of growth.

  • Region III put in strong performances in 2010 and 2011 ranking 4th and 2nd, respectively, but was outranked by 11 other regions in 2012.

  • Region X and XI, the two biggest economies in Mindanao, were safely ensconced in the middle ranks for the past three years.

From a so-so performance in 2010 and 2011, Region IX’s economy fuelled by a remarkable upsurge in the Industry sector came out strong despite a slump in the Agriculture, Hunting, Fishery and Forestry (AHFF) sector. The recent crisis in Zamboanga City does not augur well for the new found vibrance of Region IX’s economy. It is estimated that the city accounts for 70 percent of the region’s output. Estimates of the NSCB place economic cost of the current stand-off at Php 331 million daily (Table 12). Had the current crisis continued, the region would likely revert to the lethargic state it was in the past two years. 

Structures of Regional Economies

Outside of the National Capital Region (NCR), Region IVA (CALABARZON) had the largest contribution to the country’s GDP at 17.4 percent in 2012 while ARMM had the least at 0.8 percent (Table 8). Region III contributed the most to the output of AHFF at 14.0 percent while NCR had the least contribution at 0.9 percent in 2012 (Table 9). In Services, Region IVA’s share was 9.9 percent, the biggest among regions outside of NCR while the least was contributed by ARMM at 0.4 percent (Table 10). Region IVA was the main player in Industry accounting for a third of the sector’s output in 2012. ARMM’s contribution to the sector was a measly 0.1 percent. (Table 11)

Almost two thirds of Region IVA’s output is contributed by the Industry sector while Services accounts for close to 83 percent of NCR’s GRDP. ARMM’s economy on the other hand is dominated by the entire Agriculture sector with a 61.9 percent share. From 33.5 percent share in 2010, Services contribution to the economy of Region VIII increase by 5.8 percentage points in 2012. The share of Industry on the other hand went down by 5.9 percentage points

In terms of regional and sectoral contribution to GDP growth, the following interesting facts were observed from 2011-2012: (Table 13 and Figure 1).

  • Regions NCR, CAR, I, IVB, V, VIII and XI showed no dramatic change, Instead, service sector was still the top contributor for the past 2 years

  • Industry was consistently the main driver of Regions XII’s and XIII’s  in 2011-2012

  • Regions III’s, VII’s, X’s and ARMM’s economies exhibited slight shifts from Industry to Services

  • Regions IVA and IX changed from Service sector in 2011 to Industry sector in 2012

  • Regions II and VI shifted from Agriculture in 2011 to Services in 2012

GRDP and other indicators

GRDP (production) across time suggests that the region’s economies are changing, not only in terms of their growth rates but also their structure. With this, it would be of interest to examine how GRDP relates to other socio-economic indicators, including unemployment rate, underemployment rate, population, crime rate, etc. The motion chart (Figure 3) shows the behavior of other indicators as GRDP growth rates increase/decrease over time.

Conclusion

The Gross Regional Domestic Product is one of the most critical statistics generated by the NSCB. It helps in charting economic policy actions at the regional level and aids in regional resource allocation at the national level. Current disparities suggest why we have challenges in pushing for inclusive growth. The compilation and estimation of the GRDP has gone through several improvements the latest of which is the migration to the latest economic accounting system and using the latest statistical standards prescribed by no less than the United Nations System.
Communication of the GRDP to stakeholders in the region has likewise considerably improved over the last several years. The information being conveyed by the GRDP however are, most of the time, not well appreciated by the common tao. The apathy stems from the notion that such figures, rosy or grim, do not have a clear impact on their well-being-high GRDP growth does not put food on the table. Communicating the GRDP to the people therefore should be a continuing process until such time when rosy figures put a smile on every Filipino and grim ones are calls for positive action to participate more in the improvement of the economy. At some point in time, we hope to have better ways of explaining the GDP and GRDP to everyone, perhaps, by way, of some videos which we hope to post in YouTube, and disseminate across social media. After all, statistics should be meaningful to everyone.

Reactions and views are welcome thru email to the author at jrg.albert@nscb.gov.ph.

 

 

Filipino Version

 

Ano nga ba ang Nangyayari sa Ekonomiya ng mga Rehiyon sa Pilipinas?

by Jose Ramon G. Albert, Ph.D.1

Noong isang lingo, naging abala ang National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) Technical Staff sa pagdaraos ng 12th National Convention on Statistics (NCS) na ginanap noong Oktubre 1-2, 2013 sa Edsa Shangri-la Hotel. Isang malaking tagumpay ang nasabing pagtitipon dahilan sa mga de kalidad na paksang pang-estadistikang pinag-usapan at ang natatanging koordinasyon na isinagawa ng NSCB Technical Staff para sa mga dumalo.

Bago isinagawa ang 12th NCS, ako ay naatasang mag-organisa ng isang side event para sa United Nations General Assembly ukol sa paksang “Engineering a Data Revolution”. Ang pagpupulong na ito ay ginawa ng NSCB sa United Nations Heaquarters sa Nueva York sa pangalan ng pamahalaang Pilpinas. Ito ay suportado ni NEDA Director General Arsenio Balisacan at naging katulong naming ng NSCB Technical Staff at NEDA ang Partnership in Statistics for Development in the 21st Century (PARIS 21).

Ang dalawang malaking pagtitipong ito ay nagbibigay patunay na malaking ang interes at pagkahilig ukol sa estadistika lalo na sa pagbibigay larawan sa takbo ng kaunlaran ng lipunan o kawalan nito.

Ngayong halos abot tanaw na ang 2015, na syang target date ng Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), pinag-uusapan naman ngayon ay ang post 2015 MDG agenda. Naniniwala ang marami na bukod sa kasalukuyang kampanya laban sa kahirapan, nararapat ding bigyang pansin ang iba pang hangaring pang kaunlaran tulad ng kalikasan at pamamalakad (governance), na tatawaging Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda. Lumalawak ngayon ang atensyon natin ukol sa estadistika, lalo na at available na rin ang mga alternative data sources, bukod sa sa mga traditional na pinagkukunan ng datos tulad ng mga census, survey, at administrative reporting system, na syang batayan ng official statistics. Ang isa sa mga alternatibong ito ay ang tinatawag na “big data” na may malaking volume, velocity at variety. Tinatawag din itong data exhaust dahilan sa pagiging by product ito ng electronic at web based customer transactions, social media (facebook, twitter, instagram), tracking at sensor devices (mula sa GPS, at climate sensors).

Mabilis ang pagbabago ng mundo, at nararapat lamang bigyang pansin ng mga taong nasa likod ng estadistika, lalo na ang mga official statistics, ang tinatawag na ang kasalukuyang “data revolution”. Subali’t hindi naman ito nangangahulugan ng pagtalikod o pagkawala ng mga kasalukuyang ginagamit na pang-ekonomiyang estadistika tulad ng Gross Regional Domestic Product na syang sumasalamin sa kalagayang pang ekonomiko ng mga rehiyon sa ating bansa.

Mga dapat malaman ukol sa Gross Regional Domestic Product

Ang Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) ay sumusukat sa halaga ng mga produkto at serbisyo na ginagawa at nagmumula sa bawat rehiyon sa ating bansa. Ito ang bahagi sa Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ng may 17 rehiyon sa ating bansa. Ang GRDP ay kino-compile bawat taon ng National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) Technical Staff at inilalabas anim na buwan makalipas ang reference na taon.

Noong 2005, ang pagtaya at pagbubuo ng GRDP ay inilipat na sa gawain ng NSCB Regional Units mula sa Economic Statistics Office ng NSCB Central Office. Ito ay pagkatapos ng sunod-sunod na immersion workshop tungkol sa GRDP na nagsimula noong 2000. Nagsasagawa din kada taon (malimit tuwing ikatlong Huwebes ng Hulyo) ang siyam na NSCB Regional Units sa Cordilllera Administrative Region (CAR), at mga rehiyon bilang I, V, VI, VIII, IX, X, XI and XII ng hiwa-hiwalay na press conference upang iulat ang kalagayan ng ekonomiya sa bawat rehiyon.

Ang pagsasagawa ng nasabing press conference ay nagbunga ng malawak at iba-ibang karanasan para sa bawat NSCB Regional Units tulad ng pangangailangan sa dagdag na kakayanan sa pagbabahagi ng impormasyon o datos. Noong una, atubili ang mga kinatawan ng media sa pagtatanong, kung kaya’t ang isang moderator (mula sa Region VI) ay nagkomento na maaring naging napakaliwanag ng kanilang presentasyon sa mga datos, kung kaya’t walang nagnais na magtanong, o dili man kaya, ay walang sinuman sa kanila ang nakaintindi sa ginawang presentasyon ukol sa GRDP. May ilan sa mga taga medyang ito ay humiling para sa mas mababaw na kahulugan ng GDP/GNP at ano ang pagkakaiba ng dalawa.

Ang GDP ay binigyang kahulugan sa Filipino bilang “Gawa Dito sa Pilipinas” at ang GNP ay “Gawa ng Pilipino” para mas madaling maintindihan2 - Kapag sinabing “Gawa Dito sa Pilipinas” nangangahulugan, na ang mga ito ay produkto at serbisyong ginawa sa loob ng pang ekonomikong teritoryo ng Pilipinas. Samantalang ang “Gawa ng Pilipino” ay nangangahulugan na mga produkto at serbisyong ginawa ng mga Pilipino saan man sa mundo.

Ilan pa sa mga tanong ay kung bakit daw ang mataas na GRDP growth o paglago ng ekonomiya sa rehiyon ay hindi nararamdaman ng mga pangkaraniwang tao? Bakit ang bahagdan ng populasyon na mahihirap ay mataas pa rin sa kabila ng mataas na GRDP? At iba pang mga tanong. Lumalabas na, parang iniuugnay ng mga tao ang GRDP sa kalagayan ng kahirapan sa rehiyon.

Sa nasabing mga press conference, mariing ipinaliwanag ng mga NSCB Regional Staff at ng iba pang tagapagsalita na ang paglago ng GRDP ay hindi dagliang nangangahulugan ng pagkabawas sa kahirapan. Na ang paglagong ito ay dapat mapanatili sa maraming taon upang magkaroon ng positibong epekto sa sitwasyon ng kahirapan. Na ang paglikom sa datos ng GRDP ay may kakaibang methodolohiya kumpara sa pagtaya sa kahirapan sa ating bansa. Sa GRDP sinusukat nito ang mga economic activity at mga output ng mga rehiyon sa bansa, samantalang ang poverty o kahirapan ay naglalarawan ng kakulangan sa kapakanan ng mga mamamayan. Ganoon pa man, naniniwala ang marami na kailangan pa rin ang paglago ng GRDP at kung paano ito mapapanatili at tunay na maramdaman ang positibo nitong epekto para sa pangkaraniwang tao ay isang malaking hamon sa ating mga policy makers at development planners. Maging ang mga datos ukol sa pambansang kahirapan at GDP growth ay hindi magkatugma sa pagbaba ng bahagdan ng populasyon ng mahirap, subalit darating din ang panahon na ang patuloy na paglagong ng ating ekonomiya ay mangangahulugan ng mas magandang kita at mas mababang antas ng kahirapan. Ito pangunahing adhikain ng kasalukuyang Philippine Development Plan (PDP), ang maseguro ang patuloy na paglago ng ekonomiya at pag-unlad ng bansa.

Ang methodolohiya sa pagtaya sa GRDP at ilang pagbabago sa pamamaraan nito

Bago sumapit ang 2009, ang pagtaya sa GRDP sa Pilipinas ay ayon sa 1993 United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA) kung saan ang mga economic output ay binibigyang halaga ayon sa presyo noong 1985 pang makita ang totoong paggalaw ng mga  economiya sa mga rehiyon. Noong 2009, binago ang Philippine System of National Accounts (PSNA) para maisagawa ang 2003 SNA, at noong kalaunan ay 2008 SNA naman ang isinagawa. Sa rekomendasyon ng Asian Development Bank (ADB) at ng Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) noong idinaos ang Workshop on Rebasing and Linking National Accounts Series sa Bangkok, Thailand noong March 21-24, 2001, pinagtibay ang paggamit ng National Accounts of the Philippines (NAP) at maging ng GRDP sa taong 2000 bilang base year.  

Isinunod na rin sa compilation ng GRDP ang ilang pagbabago sa overall revision at rebasing ng GDP tulad ng mga sumusunod:  

  1. Pag-iba ng Base Year mula 1985 patungo 2000;
  2. Bagong mga konsepto at definition hango sa 2008 SNA international guidelines for the compilation of national accounts;
  3. Bagong ginamit na mga standard at classification system tulad ng expansion/reclassification/highlighting ng ilang mga industriya, mga activity, and mga commodity
  4. Paghusay ng Data Support: Paggamit ng revised, updated, at bagong mga datos
  5. Paghusay ng estimation methodology
    1. Paggamit ng mas maayos ng mga Methodolohiya
    2. Mas mahusay na deflator: Paggamit ng mga Updated na presyo /Mga mas karapat dapat na price indices
    3. Paggamit ng Updated na mga parameter at mga assumption

Ang revised/rebased NAP at  regional account series ay gumamit na rin ng  2009 Philippine Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC) na alinsunod sa International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC).


Policy Uses ng GRDP

Ang GRDP estimates na inilalabas ng  NSCB Technical Staff ay mga kritikal na input at elemento sa pagsasagawa ng mga alintuntunin at batas, pagtataguyod  sa pamumuhunan at pagtaya sa kalagayang ng ekonomiya sa mga rehiyon.  Ginagamit ang GRDP sa paghahanda sa taunang mga regional development plan at mga socio-economic report bilang basehan ng pagkilala sa mga sektor at industriya na nangangailangan ng promosyon at support services, ganoon din sa pagmo-monitor ng takbo ng mga regional economy at mga subsector nito. .Ginagamit din ito sa pag-aanalisa at panghuhula ng hinaharap, at iba pang pagpla-plano. Ilan pa sa pinaggagamitan ng GRDP ay ang mga sumusunod:  

  • Bilang input sa pagkwenta at pagdetermina ng minimum wage;

  • Bilang input sa pag-aaral sa takbo ng ibat-ibang sektor ng ekonomiya para sa panghuhula sa mangyayari sa mga business, at paglikha ng mga regional business/investment opportunity upang mapaunlad ang mga lokal na ekonomiya;

  • Bilang mga input sa pagpla-plano, pagbubuo at rationalization ng mga tulong para sa mga rehiyon;

  • Bilang mga input sa pagbuo ng Socio-Economic Development Plan for Conflict Affected Areas in Mindanao;

  • Basehan ng pagtatakda ng targets para sa mas mataas na produksyon ng mga pananim, pagpla-plano ng iba pang hakbangin sa loob ng limang taon;

  • Bilang mga input sa market study na isinasagawa sa mga rehiyon; mga input sa sa mga regional consultation at pagkilala sa mga pangangailangan ng hanapbuhay. Bilang baseline sa Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System matrices of indicators, bilang batayan sa assessment ng mga programang sectoral sa Philippine Development Plan

  • Bilang mga input sa State of the Region’s/Province’s Address.

Ang Philippine GDP mula 2009-2012

Bahagyang humina ang ekonomiya ng Pilipipnas sa pagitan ng mga taong 2010-2011, subalit daglian itong bumawi sa pagitan ng 2011-2012.  Ang ekonomiya ng bansa ay palagian nang pinalalakas ng service sector (Table 1) na siyang bumubuo sa mahigit na kalahati ng total GDP (Table 2).  Mapapansin na ang ang mga sektor ng services at industry ang nagtaguyod sa ekonomiya noong 2009-2010 samantalang ang agricultura at sektor ng services naman ang siya namang main boosters ng ekonomiya nong 2010-2011. Ayon sa NEDA, ang kamakailang paglago sa sektor ng industry ay nagbibigay ng malinaw na indikasyon na ang pag-arangkada sa ekonomiya ay magpapatuloy.

Ang  GRDP sa mga Island Groups: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao

Sa tatlong pinakamalaking pangkat na mga isla, ang Luzon ang may  pinakamalaking kontribusyon sa ekonomiya ng ating bansa mula 2010 hanggang 2012 na may average share na 37.3%.  Subalit ang share na ito ay patuloy na bumaba mula 37.5% (2010) at naging  37.1% ( 2012). Sa kabilang banda, patuloy namang tumataas ang share ng  Mindanao mula 14.2% noong 2010 ay naging 14.4 % noong 2012.  Samantala, ang share ng Visayas sa GDP ay nanatiling pinakamaliit  sa nakalipas na tatlong taon mula 2010 hanggang 2012: 12.6% (2010), 12.9% (2011) at 12.7% (2012). (Table 3)

Nagtamo naman ng pinakamabilis na paglago ng ekonomiya ang Mindanao sa lahat ng mga pangkat na mga isla, noong 2012 na may 8.2%.growth. Sumunod ang Luzon na may 6.3% growth mula sa dati nitong 3.3% growth noong 2011. Nanatili naman sa kanyang takbo ang  Visayas, (na syang pinakamabilis na lumalagong island group noong 2011) at nagkaroon lamang ng  5.6% na paglago noong 2012. (Table 4)

Hinataw ng industry sector ang takbo ng ekonomiya ng Mindanao sa bilis na 13.3%. Sa panig ng Visayas at Luzon group economy, ang services sector ang kanilang pinagkunan ng lakas. (Table 5)

Nag-ambag naman ang Luzon ng 54.6% sa industry sector. Dinomina na rin ng Luzon ang agrikultura sa pagkakaroon nito ng 48.0% share. (Table 6)

Paano tumakbo ang paglago ng ekonomiya sa mga rehiyon sa bansa

Sa pagitan ng mga taong 2010 at 2012, nagpamalas ang Region XIII (Caraga) ng pinakamataas na growth rate sa annual average na 9.5%.  Sa kabilang banda, ang Region VIII ang nakakuha ng pinakamabagal na paglago na may annual average na negative 2.1%.  Sa panahong ding ito, mapapansin ang ilan pang takbo ng mga pangyayari sa ekonomiya ng mga rehiyon sa bansa: (Table 7)

  • Patuloy ang pag-arangkada ng ekonomiya sa Regions II, IVB, VI at XII

  • Bumagal naman ang ekonomiya ng CAR, Region III at Region VIII

  • Nagpamalas ng pagtaas at pagbaba ang paglago ng ekonomiya ng NCR and Region I

  • Sa pagitan ng 2010-2012, umunlad ang ekonomiya ng Region IX (12.3%), ang pinakamalaking paglago sa lahat ng Region

  • Nagpamalas naman ng pinakamabagal na paglago ng ekonomiya ang Region VIII (8.3%) sa taong 2010-2012

  • Nalampasan ng Region V, IX, X, at XI ang kanilang mga growth rate noong 2010 at 2011

  • Noong 2012, gumanda ang takbo ng ekonomiya ng Region VII, XIII at Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) subalit medyo mabagal pa rin kumpara sa kanilang naitala noong 2010

  • Ang most consistent na mga region ayon sa GRDP growth ay ang Region VII at Region XIII dahilan sa kanilang tuwinang pagpasok sa top three sa mga rehiyon ng bansa

  • Patuloy na gumaganda ang ekonomiya ng Region II. Noong 2012, sila ang naging pang-apat sa pwesto kung paglago ang pag-uusapan

  • Lumakas ang performance ng Region III noong 2010 at 2011 (Rank 4th at 2nd ayon sa pagkakasunod) subalit noong 2012, naungusan sila ng 11 iba pang rehiyon

  • Sa loob ng tatlong taon, nanatiling sa middle rank ang Regions X at XI, ang dalawang rehiyon na may pinakamalaking ekonomiya sa Mindanao.


Mula sa hindi kagandahang takbo ng ekonomiya nong 2010 at 2011, ang Region IX, sa tulong ng kamangha-manghang paglago ng industry sector ay nagpakitang gilas sa kabila nang pagbagal ng buong sektor ng Agrikultura. Kaya lang, sa naganap na crisis sa Zamboanga City kamakailan, inaasahang makakaapekto ito sa pag-arangkada ng ekonomiya sa Region IX. TInatayang 70% ng regional output ng Region IX ay nagmumula sa siudad ng Zamboanga. Sa pagtaya ng NSCB, lumalabas na Php 331 milyong piso (Table 12) kada araw ang nalulugi sa ekonomiya ng rehiyon noong nagkagulo kamakailan sa Zamboanga City. Kung ang kaguluhang ito ay nagpapatuloy, malamang na nanunumbalik ang dati nitong malamlam na estado ng ekonomiya katulad ng nakaraang dalawang taong.

Ang bumubuo sa ekonomiya ng mga rehiyon sa bansa

Maliban sa National Capital Region (NCR), ang Region IVA (CALABARZON) ang may pinakamalaking ambag sa GDP ng bansa sa nakuha nitong 17.4% share noong 2012. Samantalang ang ARMM ang pinakamababa na nakakuha lamang ng 0.8%  share (Table 8). Sa buong sektor ng Agricultura, ang Region III ang may pinakamalaking output (14.0%)  samantalang ang NCR ang may pinakamababa (0.9%) naman noong 2012. (Table 9). Sa panig ng sektor ng services, ang pinakamalakas na rehiyon maliban sa NCR ay ang Region IVA (9.9%), samantala naman ang pinakamababang kontribusyon ay galing sa ARMM (0.4%) (Table 10). Ang pangunahing contributor sa Industry sector ay ang Region IVA na nakakuha ng 1/3 sa kabuuang bahagi nito noong 2012. Pinakamababa naman ang nakuha ng ARMM (0.1%). (Table 11)  

Halos 2/3 sa ekonomiya ng Region IVA ay nagmumula sa industry sector samantalang services sector ang pinagkukunan ng 83% ng GRDP ng NCR. Sa kabilang dako, ang ekonomiya ng ARMM ay dinodomina ng Agrikultura (61.9%). Mula sa 33.5% share noong 2010, ang kontribusyon ng services sector sa ekonomiya ng Region VIII ay tumaas ng 5.8% noong 2012. Ang share ng Industry sector ay bumababa naman sa 5.9%.

Kung ukol sa sectoral contribution ng sa GDP ang pag-uusapan, narito ang ilang interesting information na nangyari noong 2011-2012: (Table 13 at Figure 1)

  • Walang dramatikong pagbabago sa Regions NCR, CAR, I, IVB, V, VIII at XI. Sa halip, ang service sector ang syang nanatiling top contributor sa nakalipas na 2 taon

  • Ang industry sector ang sa tuwina’y pangunahing pinagmumulan ng paglago ng ekonomiya ng Regions XII at XIII noong 2011-2012

  • Ang ekonomiya ng Regions III, VII, X and ARMM ay bahagyang nagpamalas ng paglipat mula Industry patungo sa Services sector

  • Ang mga ekonomiya ng Region IVA at Region IX noong 2011 ay lumipat mula service sector tungo sa industry sector para sa 2012

  • Mula Agriculture sector, lumipat din ang Regions II and VI sa service sector noong 2011-2012.

Ang GRDP at iba pang mga indikators

Ang produksyon ng GRDP sa loob ng maraming panahon ay nagpapamalas na ang ekonomiya ng mga rehiyon sa bansa ay nagbabago, hindi lamang sa growth rates kundi maging sa istruktura nito Dahil rito, mas magandang malaman at pag-aralan kung paano maiuugnay ang GRDP sa iba pang socio-economic indicators, kasama na ang unemployment rate (bahagdan nang ating labor force na walang trabaho, nais makakuha ng trabaho, at puwedeng magtrabaho), underemployment rate (bahagdan ng mga may trabaho na nais makakuha ng iba pang trabaho o dili kaya dagdag na oras ng pagtratrabaho), population, crime rate, at iba pa.  Sa motion chart (Figure 3) makikita ang pagkilos ng iba pang indicators habang ang GRDP growth rates ay tumataas o bumababa sa bawat taon.  

Conclusion

Ang GRDP ay isa sa pinaka-kritikal na estadistika na nililikom ng NSCB. Tumutulong ito sa pagpagbubuo ng mga economic policy action sa mga rehiyon ganoon din sa resource allocation sa national level. Ang kasalukuyang pagkakaiba-iba sa paglago ng ekonomiya ng ng mga rehiyon sa bansa ay nagpapakita kung bakit maraming tayong mga dapat gawain sa hinaharap sa ating pagnanais na makamit ang tinatawag na “inclusive growth” o kaunlarang nararamdaman ng lahat.

Dumaan sa ilang pagpapaunlad ng methodolohiya ang compilation at estimation ng GRDP tulad ng paglipat sa kasalukuyang economic accounting system at paggamit sa bagong statistical standards na ipinatutupad ng United Nations System. Sa mga nakalipas na taon, mas naging epektibo na rin ang kumunikasyon ginagamit upang ipakilala sa lahat ng  stakeholders ang iba pang bagay ukol sa GRDP. Subalit sa kabila nito, marami pa rin sa pangkaraniwang tao ang hindi nakakaunawa sa mga impormasyong nakikita at nailalarawan ng GRDP.  Ang pangyayaring ito ay bunsod ng paniniwalang, sa kabila ng maliwanag o madilim mang larawang ipinahihiwatig ng mga numero ayon sa GRDP, wala pa rin itong malaking epekto sa kanila tulad ng pagkakaroon ng maraming pagkain sa hapag kainan. Samakatuwid, ang pagtawid sa tunay na kahulugan ng GRDP tungo sa pang-unawa  ng publiko ay nangangailangan ng patuloy na proseso hanggang dumating sa punto, na ang magagandang numerong makikita ay magpapangiti sa bawat Pilipino at ang hindi kagandahang mga datos ay magbunga ng panawagan para sa positibong hakbangin  tungo sa pakikilahok para sa pag-unlad ng ekonomiya ng bansa. Sa mga susunod na panahon, umaasa kami na magkakaroon pa ng mas mahusay na pamamaraan upang ipaliwanang sa lahat ang tunay na kahulugan ng GDP at GRDP, tulad ng mga video presentation, na inaasahan naming ipo-post sa youtube at ipamahagi sa iba pang uri ng social media. Sa kabila ng lahat, ang estadistika ay dapat maging makahulugan sa bawat Pinoy..  

Kung kayo ay may reaksyon o ibang pananaw ukol sa artikulong ito, mangyari lamang na sumulat sa may akda sa email address na: jrg.albert@nscb.gov.ph.

________________________________

1 Secretary General of the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB). The NSCB, a statistical agency functionally attached to the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), is the highest policy making and coordinating body on statistical matters in the Philippines. Immediately prior to his appointment at NSCB, Dr. Albert was a Senior Research Fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, a policy think tank attached to NEDA. Dr. Albert finished summa cum laude with a Bachelor of Science degree in Applied Mathematics from the De La Salle University in 1988. He completed a Master of Science in Statistics from the State University of New York at Stony Brook in 1989 and a Ph.D. in Statistics from the same university in 1993. He is also a past President of the Philippine Statistical Association, a Fellow of the Social Weather Stations, and an Elected Regular Member of the National Research Council of the Philippines.

This article was co-written by Ms. Nelida B. Losare, Ms. Jenelyn S. Bañares and Engr. Gil R. Arce, Statistical Coordination Officer (SCO) IV & I of NSCB Regional Statistical Coordination Unit (RSCU) – Region VI and Head of RSCU V, respectively. This article was translated in Filipino by Mr. Ruben V. Litan of the NSCB. The authors thank Dir. Candido J. Astrologo, and Ms. Vivian Illarina for the assistance in the preparation of the article. The views expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the NSCB and its Technical Staff.

2 http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2004/111604_rav_gnpgdp.asp

 


Table 1. Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Origin
Growth Rates at Constant 2000 Prices: Philippines, 2009 – 2012

Industry 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012
AHFF (0.2) 2.6 2.8
Industry 11.6 1.8 6.8
Service 7.2 4.9 7.6
GDP 7.6 3.6 6.8

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

 

 

Table 2. Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Origin
 Percent Distribution at Constant 2000 Prices: Philippines, 2010- 2012

Industry 2010 2011 2012
AHFF 11.6 11.5 11.1
Industry 32.6 32.0 32.0
Service 55.8 56.5 56.9
GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

 

Table 3. Gross Domestic Product by Major Island Group
Percent Distribution at Constant 2000 Prices: Philippines, 2010 - 2012

Island Group 2010 2011 2012
National Capital Region 35.8 35.6 35.7
Luzon 37.5 37.3 37.1
Visayas 12.6 12.9 12.7
Mindanao 14.2 14.3 14.4
Philippines 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board
Note: Regional levels may not add up to the national totals due to rounding

Table 4. Gross Domestic Product by Major Island Group
               Growth Rate at Constant 2000 Prices: Philippines, 2010 - 2012

Island Group 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012
National Capital Region 7.4 3.1 7.3
Luzon 8.8 3.3 6.3
Visayas 8.0 5.6 5.6
Mindanao 5.0 4.2 8.2
Philippines 7.6 3.6 6.8

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board
Note: Regional levels may not add up to the national totals due to rounding

 

Table 5. Gross Domestic Product by Major Island Group, by Industry
Growth Rate at Constant 2000 Prices: Philippines, 2012

Island Group AHFF Industry Services GRDP
National Capital Region

10.8 6.8 7.4 7.3
Luzon 5.1 6.0 7.1 6.3
Visayas -1.0 4.0 8.7 5.6
Mindanao

0.4 13.3 8.7 8.2
Philippines 2.8 6.8 7.6 6.8

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board
Note: Regional levels may not add up to the national totals due to rounding

 

Table 6. Gross Domestic Product  by Major Island Group, by Industry
               Percent Distribution at Constant 2000Prices: Philippines, 2012

Island Group AHFF Industry Services GRDP
National Capital Region 0.9 19.4 51.7 35.6
Luzon 48.0 54.6 25.2 37.3
Visayas 18.2 12.2 11.9 12.8
Mindanao 32.9 13.9 11.1 14.3
Philippines

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board
Note: Regional levels may not add up to the national totals due to rounding

 

Table 7. Gross Regional Domestic Product by Region
  Growth Rates and Rank at Constant 2000 Prices: 2009 – 2012

Region Growth Rates (at constant 2000 prices) and Ranks Average Growth  
  09-10 Rank 10-11 Rank 11-12 Rank 10-12 Rank
Philippines 7.6   3.6   6.8   5.2  
NCR 7.4 5 3.1 9 7.3 9 5.2 10
CAR 6.5 8 1.3 15 1.0 16 1.2 15
I 6.8 6 2.4 11 5.2 13 3.8 13
II (0.8) 17 5.6 6 8.2 4 6.9 3
III 10.0 4 7.1 2 6.3 12 6.7 6
IVA 11.7 2 1.7 14 7.0 11 4.3 12
IVB (0.3) 16 3.1 10 4.2 14 3.7 14
V 3.5 12 1.9 13 7.1 10 4.5 11
VI 4.5 11 6.2 4 7.5 6 6.8 4
VII 12.9 1 6.8 3 9.3 3 8.0 2
VIII 3.0 13 2.1 12 (6.2) 17 (2.1) 17
IX 1.4 15 0.1 16 12.4 1 6.3 8
X 6.5 9 5.8 5 7.4 8 6.6 7
XI 5.6 10 3.7 8 7.4 7 5.6 9
XII 2.2 14 5.3 7 8.1 5 6.7 5
XIII 10.7 3 8.5 1 10.6 2 9.5 1
ARMM 6.7 7 (0.3) 17 1.2 15 0.5 16

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

 

Table 8. Gross Regional Domestic Product by Region
Percent Distribution at Constant 2000 Prices: 2010-2012

Region 2010 2011 2012
Philippines 100 100.0 100.0
NCR 35.7 35.6 35.7
CAR 1.9 2.1 1.9
I 3.1 3.1 3.1
II 1.8 1.8 1.8
III 9.2 9.3 9.2
IVA 17.4 17.4 17.4
IVB 1.7 1.8 1.7
V 2.0 2.0 2.0
VI 4.1 4.1 4.1
VII 6.3 6.2 6.3
VIII 2.3 2.6 2.3
IX 2.1 2.0 2.1
X 3.8 3.8 3.8
XI 3.8 3.8 3.8
XII 2.7 2.7 2.7
XIII 1.2 1.2 1.2
ARMM 0.8 0.8 0.8

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

 

 

Table 9. Gross Value Added in AHFF by Region Percent Distribution
at Constant 2000 Prices: 2010 – 2012

Region Percent Distribution
  2010 2011 2012
Philippines 100.0 100.0 100.0
NCR 0.8 0.8 0.9
CAR 2.0 1.9 1.9
I 7.1 7.1 7.2
II 5.7 6.3 6.7
III 13.7 13.2 14.0
IVA 10.1 10.0 9.9
IVB 4.1 4.1 4.0
V 4.4 4.3 4.3
VI 8.7 9.7 9.4
VII 4.2 4.3 4.1
VIII 5.1 4.9 4.7
IX 5.1 4.5 4.2
X 8.2 8.5 8.5
XI 6.5 6.4 6.2
XII 7.2 7.2 7.4
XIII 2.4 2.3 2.3
ARMM 4.6 4.4 4.3

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

 

 

Table 10. Gross Value Added in Services
by Region Percent Distribution at Constant 2000 Prices: 2010 – 2012

Region

Percent Distribution
  2010 2011 2012
Philippines 100.0 100.0 100.0
NCR 51.9 51.8 51.7
CAR 1.4 1.3 1.3
I 2.6 2.7 2.6
II 1.5 1.5 1.5
III 6.8 6.7 6.6
IVA 9.9 9.9 9.9
IVB 1.2 1.2 1.2
V 2.0 2.0 1.9
VI 4.1 4.1 4.1
VII 6.1 6.1 6.2
VIII 1.6 1.6 1.6
IX 1.5 1.6 1.6
X 2.8 2.8 2.8
XI 3.5 3.5 3.6
XII 1.8 1.8 1.8
XIII 0.9 1.0 1.0
ARMM 0.5 0.4 0.4

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

 

Table 11. Gross Value Added in Industry
by Region
 Percent Distribution at Constant 2000 Prices: 2010 – 2012

Region Percent Distribution
  2010 2011 2012
Philippines 100.0 100.0 100.0
NCR 20.6 19.4 19.4
CAR 3.4 3.4 3.0
I 2.6 2.5 2.4
II 0.7 0.6 0.6
III 11.0 12.3 12.1
IVA 33.8 33.2 33.3
IVB 1.9 1.9 1.9
V 1.2 1.1 1.2
VI 2.1 2.0 2.2
VII 6.5 6.9 7.2
VIII 3.6 3.6 2.7
IX 1.8 1.8 2.3
X 3.7 3.9 4.0
XI 3.4 3.4 3.5
XII 2.5 2.7 2.8
XIII 1.0 1.2. 1.3
ARMM 0.1 0.1 0.1

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

 

 

Table 12. Estimated economic losses per day in Zamboanga City
due to the present crisis

Sector/Subsector Economic Losses
Agri, Forestry and Fishing P77,727,526
Manufacturing (canned sardines alone

P67,000,000)

Transportation and Storage

20,661,889

Trade

45,788,363

Financial Intermediation (Banks and non-banking financial

19,462,644

Real Estate, Renting, Business Activities                                      

15,200,539

Public Administration and Defense                                               

15,053,128

Other Services (Education, Medical, Health, Recreation, hotel, among others)        

42,191,780

Total

331,336,685

Note: 

1) The above estimates were based on the 2012 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)/Gross Value Added (GVA) of Region IX at current prices
2) GDP is the aggregate of the gross value added or income originating from each sector/subsector of the economy
3) GVA is the total payment to factors of production namely: wages, interest, profit, rent among others
4) Region IX (Zamboanga Peninsula Region) is composed of 3 provinces (Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga Sibugay) and 5 cities (Zamboanga, Pagadian, Dipolog,Dapitan and Isabela)
5) Zamboanga City, being a commercial center of the region, contributes 50-70 percent  to the total regional economy

 

Table 13. Gross Regional Domestic Product by Region Contribution
to Growth of GDP at Constant 2000 Prices: 2010 – 2012

Region 2010-2011 2011-2012
  AHFF Industry Service AHFF Industry Service
Philippines            
NCR 0.01 (0.8) 3.9 0.03 1.2 6.1
CAR 0.04 0.2 1.1 0.2 (1.9) 2.8
I 0.8 (0.9) 2.5 1.0 0.9 3.3
II 5.2 (1.8) 2.2 3.4 1.3 3.4
III (0.2) 5.5 1.9 1.5 2.3 2.5
IVA 0.1 0.04 1.5 0.2 4.3 2.6
IVB 0.7 0.3 2.1 (0.1) 1.7 2.7
V 0.2 (0.5) 2.2 0.7 2.9 3.4
VI 3.6 (0.1) 2.8 (0.02) 3.1 4.4
VII 0.3 3.3 3.2 (0.1) 3.9 5.4
VIII (0.2) 0.7 1.5 (0.7) (8.1) 2.6
IX (2.8) 0.4 2.5 (0.7) 9.4 3.7
X 1.7 2.2 1.9 0.6 3.0 3.7
XI 0.1 0.2 3.4 0.1 2.6 4.8
XII 0.6 3.1 1.6 1.6 3.5 3.0
XIII 0.1 4.5 3.9 0.5 5.9 4.2
ARMM (1.4) 0.6 0.4 (0.7) (0.1) 2.0

 

 

Figure 1. Gross Regional Domestic Product by Industrial Origin,
2012In Percent (at Constant 2000 prices)

 

 

 

Figure 2.  Gross Regional Domestic Product
and other selected indicators

 

fig2

 

 

Figure 3.  Gross Regional Domestic Product and other selected indicators

 

 

 

GRDP - Gross Regional Domestic Product
GVA - Gross Value Added
AHFF - Agriculture, Hunting, Fishery and Forestry


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Posted: 11 October 2013

 


 

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