For the Record 

On Questions about Philippine GDP Estimates

This article seeks to clarify some of the points raised in the UP School of Economics Discussion Paper No. 0802 “Philippine GDP Growth After the Asian Financial Crisis:  Resilient Economy or Weak Statistical System?” written by Felipe M. Medalla and Karl Robert L. Jandoc.

The NSCB has made clarifications on similar concerns raised in an article written by Mr. Felipe F. Salvosa II in the July 4 2007 issue of the Business World entitled Reliability of Government Economic Data Questioned”. The NSCB reply was posted on its website For the Record page (http://www.nscb.gov.ph/announce/ForTheRecord/20july07_reliability.asp) on 20 July 20, 2007.

As we have said in the past, the NSCB has always been transparent regarding the weaknesses and limitations of the GDP estimates particularly on the expenditure side. This has been discussed in the PSNA Technical Notes for the Second Quarter of 2002 Estimates (http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2002/2qtr-2002/2002tn2.asp).  Likewise, the NSCB discussed revisions made in the national accounts in the following articles:  Revision of Official Statistics – Is It Cheating? (http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/091205_rav_revPolicy.asp); For the Record:  On Data Revisions (http://www.nscb.gov.ph/announce/ForTheRecord/21Sept05_revisions.asp); and, NSCB Technical Notes on the Estimates of the Philippine System of National Accounts (PSNA) Series 2007-Q2 (http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2007/2ndQ2007/2007tn_2007-Q2.asp).

Moreover, NSCB officials have openly discussed these matters in several fora such as:  “Understanding the PSNA” presented by Dr. Romulo A. Virola on October 24, 2005 for the Annual Training for Institutional Members of the Philippine Statistical Association; and “The PSNA: Today and Tomorrow” presented by Estrella V. Domingo on January 16, 2008 for the Philippine Statistical System (PSS) Review Committee.

It should also be noted that revisions made on the national accounts estimates are based on the revision policy guidelines set by the NSCB Executive Board, thru NSCB Resolution No. 8 Series of 1997 “Approving The Policy on Updating the National Accounts”, (http://www.nscb.gov.ph/resolutions/1997/8.asp). A technical note on the revision policy can be found at: http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2007/2ndQ2007/2007tn_2007-Q2.asp and further clarification can be found at http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/091205_rav_revPolicy.asp);

As in the earlier clarificatory note, we would not wish to comment on the economic theories and expectations or speculations as to how the economy and its components should be performing; this article is written purely from the point of view of the NSCB as the compiler of the national accounts of the Philippines. We release estimates of the national accounts using guidelines formulated and recognized by the international community including the United Nations Statistical Commission. Foremost of these guidelines is the 2008 System of National Accounts (the earlier versions were called the 1968 UNSNA and the 1993 SNA) adopted by the UN Statistical Commission during its fortieth session from 24-27 February 2009 in New York. The 2008 SNA was formulated by the Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts (ISWGNA), composed of representatives from the Statistical Office of the European Commission (Eurostat), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the United Nations Statistics Division and regional commissions of the United Nations Secretariat and the World Bank and after wide and thorough consultations with expert national accounts compilers all over the world. The Philippines through the NSCB, participated actively in the finalization of the 2008 SNA.  On the basis of these internationally accepted standards, the NSCB, after thorough deliberation, releases GDP growth rate estimates based on what the data tell us, not on theories and expectations or speculations of what the growth rate should be.

At the outset, we would also like to reiterate what we have said so many times in the past. While the Philippine System of National Accounts (PSNA) like Systems of National Accounts of other countries including those of developed countries has its many limitations, we are proud to say that the NSCB is recognized by our peers in the international statistical community for our professionalism and expertise in the compilation of the PSNA. We have benefited from study visits to the national accounts compilers of Statistics Canada, Statistics Sweden, Australian Bureau of Statistics, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S.A., among others. Members of our staff have participated in training programs, expert group meetings and workshops on the national accounts sponsored by the United Nations Statistics Division, the IMF, the World Bank, the UN Statistical Institute for Asia and the Pacific, the UN ESCAP, the ASEAN Secretariat, the Asian Productivity Organization, the Asian Development Bank, the Government of Japan, etc.  We have hosted study tours/conducted training sessions on the national accounts for/from other countries including China, Indonesia, India, Bhutan and Bangladesh, among others. We have presented technical papers and learned from the experiences of other national accounts compilers in various international fora such as the sessions of the United Nations Statistical Commission and the International Statistical Institute and various regional and international workshops. We would like to assure Prof. Medalla and Mr. Jandoc that when we attend an international gathering of statistical professionals, we bring home with us new knowledge and skills that we, after careful thought, apply in our work at the NSCB. We also invite them to talk with and be enlightened by professionals who have had wide experiences in the actual compilation of the national accounts in other countries.

For the record, the recent quarterly GDP growth rate estimates of the Philippines from 1992 to 2008 (a total of 60 quarters, excluding the breaks in the series) underwent 33 upward revisions, 22 downward revisions and 5 quarters with no revisions from the preliminary to the final/latest estimates (Table 1).

Also in the regular deliberation of the quarterly estimates, given the various sources of our data, we conduct validation exercises and consistency checks between demand and supply as well as between outputs and inputs. For further reference, please go to http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2002/2qtr-2002/2002tn2.asp.

   Medalla and Jandoc statement

Excerpts from Section 3.  Increase in GDP growth due to Import Growth Compression

“…How can the growth rate of domestic production rise when there is a fall in the growth rate of demand due to the decline in the growth rates of both domestic absorption (C+ I + G) and exports?”

 “…If the National Income Accounts are reliable, GDP grew faster after the AFC because of the large decline in the growth rate of imports after the AFC, not because of the rise in consumption growth.”

 

NSCB Clarification

           Medalla and Jandoc statement

Excerpts from Section 5.  Consumption growth is probably overestimated

“…Figure 5 below shows that the average growth rate of Personal Consumption Expenditure (from the National Income Accounts) in 2006 was the highest in 15 years but the growth rates of Gross National Income (GNI) net of taxes was falling and was lowest in the last 10 years.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NSCB Clarification

   Medalla and Jandoc statement

Excerpts from Section 5.  Consumption growth is probably overestimated

“…Since consumption is a very large part of GDP and the estimates of personal consumption expenditures in the accounts are derived directly from the estimates of value added in the production side of the accounts, any evidence that would show that the growth of personal consumption is over-estimated is also evidence that the growth rate of GDP is over-estimated.  Moreover, since the estimates of the growth of personal consumption and GDP are based on the same sources (i.e., the estimates of consumption come from the estimate of production of goods and services that are classified as purchased by consumers), the growth rate of both personal consumption and GDP could be over-estimated without necessarily causing any large change in the statistical discrepancy”

NSCB Clarification

Obviously, upward revisions on the PCE do not necessarily result to upward revisions of GDP. Same for downward revisions.

Also we wonder why Dr. Medalla and Mr. Jandoc talk about overestimation of PCE when in fact PCE had been underestimated more times than it had been overestimated! (see Table 4)

   Medalla and Jandoc statement

Excerpt from Section 7.  On the contrary, Industy is weakening

“Table 7 shows that in the period 2002-2007, the strength of the relationship between Manufacturing growth in the NIA and MISSI VOPI growth deteriorated as reflected by the lower R-square. Thus, the correlation between the two series weakened and manufacturing growth rates  are now higher than before 2002, holding the movements of VOPI constant”.

NSCB Clarification:

We have talked many times about the differences and similarities between MISSI VOPI and the NIA estimates of manufacturing GVA and we do not know what economic theories form the basis of the relationship between these two variables that may have been hypothesized by Dr. Medalla and Mr. Jandoc, but we think that their interpretation of the meaning of R-squared is not correct.

   Medalla and Jandoc statement

Excerpt from Section 8.  There are many problems in the measurement of services sector growth

“While there is nothing inherently wrong with trying to capture the effects of new sources of growth in the National Income Account, it is important to make sure that such does not introduce an upward bias in the growth rates.  For instance, if the attempt to capture the output of new sectors is done for current years but is not done retroactively, then estimated growth in recent yeas would be overestimated since the output in the earlier years would be understated.

NSCB Clarification:

   Medalla and Jandoc statement

Excerpt from Section 9. Other Indicators point to a lethargic economy

“There are also other indicators that lend to the belief that the economy is not as robust as the NSCB paints it to be.  A rapidly growing economy should be intensive users of energy:  the increase in demand comes from both residents that increase their energy requirements to complement their higher standards of living and from firms that need more energy to fuel their increased production”

“….the slowdown of credit coincides with the period where economic has been robust as indicated by the NIA statistics.  This indicator appears to be pointing at an economy that is relatively more fragile than what official statistics suggests”

“As an offshoot of weak domestic lending, investment as a proportion of GDP (investment to GDP ratio) continues its slide dating back to the Asian Financial Crisis. “

NSCB Clarification:

   Medalla and Jandoc statement

Excerpt from Conclusion: The National Income Accounts should be improved

NSCB Clarification:

Additional Information

Breaks in the PSNA series

 

 

While clearly we do not agree with everything they said in their paper, the NSCB would like to thank Dr. Felipe M. Medalla and Mr. Karl Robert L. Jandoc for their interest in statistics and for the challenges they have posed for the improvement of the Philippine System of National Accounts and the Philippine Statistical System in general.

We would also like to take this opportunity to acknowledge the strong support and guidance given by Dr. Medalla to the Philippine Statistical System when he was the Secretary of Socio-Economic Planning and NEDA Director General as well as Chairman of the NSCB. During his time, the budget for the 2000 FIES was cut, but upon his dedicated representation, the budget was restored and the conduct of the 2000 FIES pushed through. Likewise, during his chairmanship of the NSCB, he called the attention of the NSCB to the weaknesses of our deflators on imports which led us to an improved methodology in the estimation of exports and imports in constant prices. 

Finally, for better appreciation of the System of National Accounts (SNA), we strongly encourage those who are interested in the improvement of the PSNA to read and understand the 1993 and 2008 SNA.  These can be accessed at http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/toctop.asp. and http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/SNA2008.pdf, respectively.  Likewise, we encourage readers to peruse the Technical notes on the PSNA which are published on the NSCB website for better comprehension of our national accounts.  For inquiries, please contact Director Raymundo J. Talento of the Economic Statistics Office of the National Statistical Coordination Board at telephone numbered (632) 895-2425, or through e-mail address: rj.talento@nscb.gov.ph.

 

 

 

Table 1. Gross Domestic Product: History of Revisions
At Constant Prices, Quarterly, 1992-2008

Year Quarter Growth Rate at Constant Percentage Points
First estimate Final/Latest Revision
1992 Q1 0.5 2.2 1.7
  Q2 -1.4 -0.3 1.1
  Q3 -0.1 0.4 0.5
  Q4 0.9 -0.8 -1.7
1993 Q1 -0.2 0.7 0.9
  Q2 1.7 2.5 0.8
  Q3 2.1 2.7 0.6
  Q4 2.3 2.5 0.2
1994 Q1 3.8 3.6 -0.2
  Q2 4.5 4.6 0.1
  Q3 5.1 5.1 0.0
  Q4 3.9 4.2 0.3
1995 Q1 4.8 4.8 0.0
  Q2 4.9 4.3 -0.6
  Q3 5.7 6.0 0.3
  Q4 4.5 3.8 -0.7
1996 Q1 4.7 5.2 0.5
  Q2 5.8 6.6 0.8
  Q3 5.9 6.1 0.2
  Q4 5.2 5.6 0.4
1997 Q1 5.0 5.1 0.1
  Q2 5.7 6.0 0.3
  Q3 4.9 4.7 -0.2
  Q4 4.7 4.9 0.2
1998 Q1 1.7 2.5 0.8
  Q2 -1.2 -1.4 -0.2
  Q3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.6
  Q4 -1.9 -2.4 -0.5
1999 Q1 1.2 0.7 -0.5
  Q2 3.6 3.8 0.2
  Q3 3.1 3.8 0.7
  Q4 4.6 5.1 0.5
20001 Q1 ** ** **
  Q2 ** ** **
  Q3 ** ** **
  Q4 ** ** **
2001 Q1 2.5 1.3 -1.2
  Q2 3.3 2.0 -1.3
  Q3 2.9 1.4 -1.5
  Q4 3.8 2.3 -1.5
2002 Q1 3.8 4.2 0.4
  Q2 4.5 4.6 0.1
  Q3 3.8 3.3 -0.5
  Q4 5.8 5.5 -0.3
2003 Q1 4.5 4.8 0.3
  Q2 3.2 4.3 1.1
  Q3 4.4 5.4 1.0
  Q4 4.5 5.1 0.6
20042 Q1 ** ** **
  Q2 ** ** **
  Q3 ** ** **
  Q4 ** ** **
2005 Q1 4.6 4.5 -0.1
  Q2 4.8 5.1 0.3
  Q3 4.1 4.7 0.6
  Q4 6.1 5.4 -0.7
2006 Q1 5.5 5.5 0.0
  Q2 5.5 5.3 -0.2
  Q3 4.8 5.2 0.4
  Q4 4.8 5.4 0.6
2007 Q1 6.9 6.9 0.0
  Q2 7.5 8.3 0.8
  Q3 6.6 6.8 0.2
  Q4 7.4 6.3 -1.1
2008 Q1 5.2 3.9 -1.3
  Q2 4.6 4.2 -0.4
  Q3 4.6 4.6 0.0
  Q4 4.5 2.9 -1.6

Summary of Revisions:

Year Count
1992-1999
Upward 21
Downward 9
No revision 2
2001-2003
Upward 6
Downward 6
No revision 0
2005-2008
Upward 6
Downward 7
No revision 3
1992-2008
(Excluding the Breaks)
Upward 33
Downward 22
No revision 5

 

Note:
** Break in the series
1\ Break in the 1999 and 2000
2\ Break in the 2003 and 2004

Source: NSCB

 

 

Table 2. GDP by Expenditure Shares
At Constant Prices, Annual, 1989-2007

YEAR L E V E L  GROWTH RATE Contibution to GDP Growth Dummy Variable for Growth Rates
GDP GDE PCE
+GDCF
+GGCE
Exports Imports GDP GDE PCE
+GDCF
+GGCE
Exports Imports PCE
+GDCF
+GGCE
Exports Imports 1, if GDP>0 1, if C+I+G <0 1, if X <0 3, if GDP>0 and C+I+G<0 and X<0
C+I+G X M     C+I+G X M C+I+G X M
1989 699,448 676,661 707,363 213,888 244,590 6.2 6.0 8.1 8.9 15.2 8.03 2.65 4.89 1     1
1990 720,690 710,482 761,765 217,865 269,148 3.0 5.0 7.7 1.9 10.0 7.78 0.57 3.51 1     1
1991 716,522 708,037 742,661 231,515 266,139 -0.6 -0.3 -2.5 6.3 -1.1 -2.65 1.89 -0.42   1   1
1992 718,941 723,256 771,098 241,431 289,273 0.3 2.1 3.8 4.3 8.7 3.97 1.38 3.23 1     1
1993 734,156 737,635 803,732 256,451 322,548 2.1 2.0 4.2 6.2 11.5 4.54 2.09 4.63 1     1
1994 766,368 781,126 843,246 307,205 369,325 4.4 5.9 4.9 19.8 14.5 5.38 6.91 6.37 1     1
1995 802,224 791,632 875,926 344,181 428,475 4.7 1.3 3.9 12.0 16.0 4.26 4.82 7.72 1     1
1996 849,121 827,764 930,757 397,201 500,194 5.8 4.6 6.3 15.4 16.7 6.83 6.61 8.94 1     1
1997 893,151 888,721 991,071 465,322 567,672 5.2 7.4 6.5 17.2 13.5 7.10 8.02 7.95 1     1
1998 888,000 858,215 975,003 367,447 484,235 -0.6 -3.4 -1.6 -21.0 -14.7 -1.80 -10.96 -9.34   1 1 2
1999 918,160 904,590 994,508 380,755 470,673 3.4 5.4 2.0 3.6 -2.8 2.20 1.50 -1.53 1     1
20001 972,960 1,025,674 1,070,769 445,673 490,768
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
1      
2001 990,042 998,340 1,076,045 430,339 508,044 1.8 -2.7 0.5 -3.4 3.5 0.54 -1.58 1.78 1   1 2
2002 1,034,094 1,006,544 1,095,392 447,686 536,535 4.4 0.8 1.8 4.0 5.6 1.95 1.75 2.88 1     1
2003 1,085,072 1,021,364 1,146,429 469,537 594,603 4.9 1.5 4.7 4.9 10.8 4.94 2.11 5.62 1     1
20042 1,154,295 1,124,375 1,213,335 539,950 628,911
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
1      
2005 1,211,452 1,160,076 1,238,173 565,742 643,839 5.0 3.2 2.0 4.8 2.4 2.15 2.23 1.29 1     1
2006 1,276,156 1,294,976 1,309,225 641,457 655,706 5.3 11.6 5.7 13.4 1.8 5.87 6.25 0.98 1     1
2007 1,366,493 1,448,541 1,401,005 676,098 628,562 7.1 11.9 7.0 5.4 -4.1 7.19 2.71 -2.13 1     1
                            Number of Years when
GDP Growth Rates>0 and C+I+G Growth Rates<0
and X Growth Rates<0
0

Note:
** Break in the series
1\ Break in the 1999 and 2000
2\ Break in the 2003 and 2004

Source: NSCB

Table 3. GDP by Expenditure Shares
At Constant Prices, Quarterly, 1989-2007

Year Qrtr L E V E L  GROWTH RATE Contibution to GDP Growth Dummy Variable for Growth Rates
GDP GDE PCE PCE
+GDCF
+GGCE
Exports Imports GDP GDE PCE PCE
+GDCF
+GGCE
Exports Imports PCE
+GDCF
+GGCE
Exports Imports 1, if GDP>0 1, if C+I+G <0 1, if X <0 3, if GDP>0 and C+I+G<0 and X<0
C C+I+G X M C C+I+G X M C+I+G X M
1989 Q1 162,483 154,757 113,865 158,595 49,864 53,702 6.3 5.0 5.6 6.8 10.9 16.5 6.62 3.20 4.99 1     1
  Q2 169,601 162,910 124,365 173,189 53,042 63,321 5.4 6.8 4.4 11.2 8.7 21.8 10.84 2.64 7.05 1     1
  Q3 166,980 162,214 125,241 171,026 54,601 63,413 5.4 2.0 4.6 3.9 7.2 12.3 4.09 2.30 4.37 1     1
  Q4 200,384 196,780 141,148 204,553 56,381 64,154 7.4 9.6 5.4 10.2 9.0 11.0 10.11 2.49 3.40 1     1
1990 Q1 171,001 169,230 119,902 178,804 53,984 63,558 5.2 9.4 5.3 12.7 8.3 18.4 12.44 2.54 6.07 1     1
  Q2 175,530 172,811 130,988 189,318 54,927 71,434 3.5 6.1 5.3 9.3 3.6 12.8 9.51 1.11 4.78 1     1
  Q3 173,135 167,227 132,046 181,744 56,645 71,162 3.7 3.1 5.4 6.3 3.7 12.2 6.42 1.22 4.64 1     1
  Q4 201,024 201,214 148,836 211,899 52,309 62,994 0.3 2.3 5.4 3.6 -7.2 -1.8 3.67 -2.03 -0.58 1   1 2
1991 Q1 170,766 170,949 124,334 178,044 55,145 62,240 -0.1 1.0 3.7 -0.4 2.2 -2.1 -0.44 0.68 -0.77   1   1
  Q2 173,321 173,225 134,451 180,278 58,981 66,034 -1.3 0.2 2.6 -4.8 7.4 -7.6 -5.15 2.31 -3.08   1   1
  Q3 169,851 167,421 134,715 179,821 55,882 68,282 -1.9 0.1 2.0 -1.1 -1.3 -4.0 -1.11 -0.44 -1.66   1 1 2
  Q4 202,584 196,442 150,288 204,518 61,507 69,583 0.8 -2.4 1.0 -3.5 17.6 10.5 -3.67 4.58 3.28 1 1   2
1992 Q1 174,547 175,971 129,829 183,520 59,619 67,168 2.2 2.9 4.4 3.1 8.1 7.9 3.21 2.62 2.89 1     1
  Q2 172,868 170,171 138,703 188,784 55,511 74,124 -0.3 -1.8 3.2 4.7 -5.9 12.3 4.91 -2.00 4.67     1 1
  Q3 170,486 173,089 139,051 188,146 59,670 74,727 0.4 3.4 3.2 4.6 6.8 9.4 4.90 2.23 3.79 1     1
  Q4 201,040 204,025 153,926 210,648 66,631 73,254 -0.8 3.9 2.4 3.0 8.3 5.3 3.03 2.53 1.81       0
1993 Q1 175,701 175,893 132,628 186,112 59,751 69,970 0.7 0.0 2.2 1.4 0.2 4.2 1.48 0.08 1.61 1     1
  Q2 177,248 176,206 143,069 195,181 60,648 79,623 2.5 3.5 3.1 3.4 9.3 7.4 3.70 2.97 3.18 1     1
  Q3 175,044 178,180 143,802 200,059 63,424 85,303 2.7 2.9 3.4 6.3 6.3 14.2 6.99 2.20 6.20 1     1
  Q4 206,163 207,356 159,090 222,380 72,628 87,652 2.5 1.6 3.4 5.6 9.0 19.7 5.84 2.98 7.16 1     1
1994 Q1 182,112 177,810 137,450 196,118 69,868 88,176 3.6 1.1 3.6 5.4 16.9 26.0 5.69 5.76 10.36 1     1
  Q2 185,472 190,036 148,549 210,023 74,671 94,658 4.6 7.8 3.8 7.6 23.1 18.9 8.37 7.91 8.48 1     1
  Q3 183,936 192,601 148,969 201,976 78,849 88,224 5.1 8.1 3.6 1.0 24.3 3.4 1.10 8.81 1.67 1     1
  Q4 214,848 220,679 165,138 235,129 83,817 98,267 4.2 6.4 3.8 5.7 15.4 12.1 6.18 5.43 5.15 1     1
1995 Q1 190,873 185,480 143,389 207,424 72,549 94,493 4.8 4.3 4.3 5.8 3.8 7.2 6.21 1.47 3.47 1     1
  Q2 193,439 183,474 154,434 214,866 81,036 112,428 4.3 -3.5 4.0 2.3 8.5 18.8 2.61 3.43 9.58 1     1
  Q3 194,997 195,970 153,749 210,147 92,758 106,935 6.0 1.7 3.2 4.0 17.6 21.2 4.44 7.56 10.17 1     1
  Q4 222,915 226,708 171,413 243,489 97,838 114,619 3.8 2.7 3.8 3.6 16.7 16.6 3.89 6.53 7.61 1     1
1996 Q1 200,770 190,184 149,421 218,570 84,005 112,391 5.2 2.5 4.2 5.4 15.8 18.9 5.84 6.00 9.38 1     1
  Q2 206,169 195,198 161,553 230,268 92,116 127,186 6.6 6.4 4.6 7.2 13.7 13.1 7.96 5.73 7.63 1     1
  Q3 206,844 205,636 161,074 227,270 109,044 130,678 6.1 4.9 4.8 8.1 17.6 22.2 8.78 8.35 12.18 1     1
  Q4 235,338 236,746 179,742 254,649 112,036 129,939 5.6 4.4 4.9 4.6 14.5 13.4 5.01 6.37 6.87 1     1
1997 Q1 210,954 211,539 156,862 234,549 102,777 125,787 5.1 11.2 5.0 7.3 22.3 11.9 7.96 9.35 6.67 1     1
  Q2 218,642 213,859 169,755 243,348 107,938 137,427 6.0 9.6 5.1 5.7 17.2 8.1 6.34 7.67 4.97 1     1
  Q3 216,653 209,537 169,099 240,914 121,904 153,281 4.7 1.9 5.0 6.0 11.8 17.3 6.60 6.22 10.93 1     1
  Q4 246,902 253,786 188,600 272,260 132,703 151,177 4.9 7.2 4.9 6.9 18.4 16.3 7.48 8.78 9.02 1     1
1998 Q1 216,215 202,186 163,980 237,138 98,147 133,099 2.5 -4.4 4.5 1.1 -4.5 5.8 1.23 -2.19 3.47 1   1 2
  Q2 215,629 206,808 176,450 239,989 87,009 120,190 -1.4 -3.3 3.9 -1.4 -19.4 -12.5 -1.54 -9.57 -7.88   1 1 2
  Q3 215,234 201,963 173,976 235,488 95,758 129,283 -0.7 -3.6 2.9 -2.3 -21.4 -15.7 -2.50 -12.07 -11.08   1 1 2
  Q4 240,922 247,258 193,498 262,388 86,533 101,663 -2.4 -2.6 2.6 -3.6 -34.8 -32.8 -4.00 -18.70 -20.05   1 1 2
1999 Q1 217,810 219,625 168,030 240,428 89,885 110,688 0.7 8.6 2.5 1.4 -8.4 -16.8 1.52 -3.82 -10.37 1   1 2
  Q2 223,756 217,074 181,018 247,567 89,864 120,357 3.8 5.0 2.6 3.2 3.3 0.1 3.51 1.32 0.08 1     1
  Q3 223,489 215,918 178,325 240,376 106,810 131,268 3.8 6.9 2.5 2.1 11.5 1.5 2.27 5.13 0.92 1     1
  Q4 253,105 251,973 199,205 266,137 94,196 108,360 5.1 1.9 2.9 1.4 8.9 6.6 1.56 3.18 2.78 1     1
20001 Q1 229,415 241,451 173,407 255,808 102,746 117,103
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
      0
  Q2 237,420 252,794 186,729 263,967 105,050 116,223
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
      0
  Q3 239,521 255,194 184,866 261,959 124,044 130,809
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
      0
  Q4 266,604 276,235 207,064 289,035 113,833 126,633
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
      0
2001 Q1 232,325 243,034 179,439 255,890 109,780 122,636 1.3 0.7 3.5 0.0 6.8 4.7 0.04 3.07 2.41 1     1
  Q2 242,057 240,130 192,885 272,365 102,084 134,319 2.0 -5.0 3.3 3.2 -2.8 15.6 3.54 -1.25 7.62 1   1 2
  Q3 242,983 246,690 191,769 261,419 118,819 133,548 1.4 -3.3 3.7 -0.2 -4.2 2.1 -0.23 -2.18 1.14 1 1 1 3
  Q4 272,677 268,486 214,918 286,371 99,656 117,541 2.3 -2.8 3.8 -0.9 -12.5 -7.2 -1.00 -5.32 -3.41 1 1 1 3
2002 Q1 242,041 239,991 185,680 253,901 103,499 117,409 4.2 -1.3 3.5 -0.8 -5.7 -4.3 -0.86 -2.70 -2.25 1 1 1 3
  Q2 253,271 242,415 200,314 274,799 109,084 141,467 4.6 1.0 3.9 0.9 6.9 5.3 1.01 2.89 2.95 1     1
  Q3 250,996 251,377 199,932 263,926 128,800 141,349 3.3 1.9 4.3 1.0 8.4 5.8 1.03 4.11 3.21 1     1
  Q4 287,785 272,761 224,859 302,766 106,304 136,309 5.5 1.6 4.6 5.7 6.7 16.0 6.01 2.44 6.88 1     1
2003 Q1 253,672 234,734 195,033 271,712 108,898 145,876 4.8 -2.2 5.0 7.0 5.2 24.2 7.36 2.23 11.76 1     1
  Q2 264,189 244,714 211,023 285,687 111,436 152,409 4.3 0.9 5.3 4.0 2.2 7.7 4.30 0.93 4.32 1     1
  Q3 264,671 264,355 210,321 278,352 132,396 146,393 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.5 2.8 3.6 5.75 1.43 2.01 1     1
  Q4 302,539 277,561 237,221 310,680 116,807 149,925 5.1 1.8 5.5 2.6 9.9 10.0 2.75 3.65 4.73 1     1
20042 Q1 271,817 260,295 206,766 287,916 123,401 151,022
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
      0
  Q2 282,939 269,912 224,318 301,675 130,984 162,747
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
      0
  Q3 279,581 290,724 221,873 291,318 155,608 156,202
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
      0
  Q4 319,959 303,443 250,856 332,426 129,957 158,939
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
      0
2005 Q1 284,063 269,789 216,695 291,552 125,943 147,707 4.5 3.6 4.8 1.3 2.1 -2.2 1.34 0.94 -1.22 1     1
  Q2 297,426 277,225 235,173 310,027 134,168 166,970 5.1 2.7 4.8 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.95 1.13 1.49 1     1
  Q3 292,665 297,678 232,159 298,444 167,158 167,924 4.7 2.4 4.6 2.4 7.4 7.5 2.55 4.13 4.19 1     1
  Q4 337,298 315,384 263,478 338,149 138,473 161,238 5.4 3.9 5.0 1.7 6.6 1.4 1.79 2.66 0.72 1     1
2006 Q1 299,681 296,012 227,928 305,443 142,391 151,822 5.5 9.7 5.2 4.8 13.1 2.8 4.89 5.79 1.45 1     1
  Q2 313,112 318,931 247,502 325,361 167,603 174,033 5.3 15.0 5.2 4.9 24.9 4.2 5.16 11.24 2.37 1     1
  Q3 307,750 335,464 244,561 320,098 184,637 169,271 5.2 12.7 5.3 7.3 10.5 0.8 7.40 5.97 0.46 1     1
  Q4 355,613 344,569 279,737 358,323 146,825 160,580 5.4 9.3 6.2 6.0 6.0 -0.4 5.98 2.48 -0.20 1     1
2007 Q1 320,326 339,962 241,363 331,640 157,359 149,037 6.9 14.8 5.9 8.6 10.5 -1.8 8.74 4.99 -0.93 1     1
  Q2 339,218 369,250 261,402 350,769 174,676 156,195 8.3 15.8 5.6 7.8 4.2 -10.2 8.11 2.26 -5.70 1     1
  Q3 328,795 365,620 258,446 336,301 190,650 161,331 6.8 9.0 5.7 5.1 3.3 -4.7 5.27 1.95 -2.58 1     1
  Q4 378,154 373,710 296,966 382,295 153,413 161,998 6.3 8.5 6.2 6.7 4.5 0.9 6.74 1.85 0.40 1     1
Number of Quarters when GDP Growth Rates>0 and C+I+G Growth Rates<0 and X Growth Rates<0 3

 

Note:
** Break in the series
1\ Break in the 1999 and 2000
2\ Break in the 2003 and 2004

Source: NSCB

 

Table 4. Personal Consumption Expenditure and Gross Domestic Product:
History of Revisions
At Constant Prices, Quarterly, 1998-2008

Year Quarter Growth Rate at Constant Percentage Points
First estimate Final/Latest estimate Revision
PCE GDP PCE GDP PCE GDP
1998 Q1 4.5 1.7 4.5 2.5
0.0
0.8
  Q2 4.4 -1.2 3.9 -1.4
-0.5
-0.2
  Q3 3.3 -0.1 2.9 -0.7
-0.4
-0.6
  Q4 2.8 -1.9 2.6 -2.4
-0.2
-0.5
1999 Q1 2.5 1.2 2.5 0.7
0.0
-0.5
  Q2 2.6 3.6 2.6 3.8
0.0
0.2
  Q3 2.6 3.1 2.5 3.8
-0.1
0.7
  Q4 3.0 4.6 2.9 5.1
-0.1
0.5
20001 Q1 3.2 3.4 3.2 5.3
0.0
1.9
  Q2 3.2 4.5 3.2 6.1
0.0
1.6
  Q3 3.5 4.8 3.7 7.2
0.2
2.4
  Q4 3.9 3.6 3.9 5.3
0.0
1.7
2001 Q1 3.5 2.5 3.5 1.3
0.0
-1.2
  Q2 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.0
0.1
-1.3
  Q3 3.3 2.9 3.7 1.4
0.4
-1.5
  Q4 3.7 3.8 3.8 2.3
0.1
-1.5
2002 Q1 3.4 3.8 3.5 4.2
0.1
0.4
  Q2 3.8 4.5 3.9 4.6
0.1
0.1
  Q3 4.1 3.8 4.3 3.3
0.2
-0.5
  Q4 4.4 5.8 4.6 5.5
0.2
-0.3
2003 Q1 4.9 4.5 5.0 4.8
0.1
0.3
  Q2 5.1 3.2 5.3 4.3
0.2
1.1
  Q3 4.9 4.4 5.2 5.4
0.3
1.0
  Q4 5.2 4.5 5.5 5.1
0.3
0.6
20042 Q1 5.9 6.4 6.0 7.2
0.1
0.8
  Q2 6.0 6.2 6.3 7.1
0.3
0.9
  Q3 5.6 6.3 5.5 5.6
-0.1
-0.7
  Q4 5.8 5.4 5.7 5.8
-0.1
0.4
2005 Q1 5.0 4.6 4.8 4.5
-0.2
-0.1
  Q2 4.9 4.8 4.8 5.1
-0.1
0.3
  Q3 4.8 4.1 4.6 4.7
-0.2
0.6
  Q4 5.2 6.1 5.0 5.4
-0.2
-0.7
2006 Q1 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.5
0.1
0.0
  Q2 5.2 5.5 5.2 5.3
0.0
-0.2
  Q3 5.3 4.8 5.3 5.2
0.0
0.4
  Q4 5.6 4.8 6.2 5.4
0.6
0.6
2007 Q1 5.9 6.9 5.9 6.9
0.0
0.0
  Q2 6.0 7.5 5.6 8.3
-0.4
0.8
  Q3 5.6 6.6 5.7 6.8
0.1
0.2
  Q4 6.3 7.4 6.2 6.3
-0.1
-1.1
2008 Q1 5.1 5.2 5.1 3.9
0.0
-1.3
  Q2 3.4 4.6 4.1 4.2
0.7
-0.4
  Q3 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.6
-0.2
0.0
  Q4 4.5 4.5 5.0 2.9
0.5
-1.6

Summary of Revisions

Year Count
PCE GDP
1998-1999
Upward 0 4
Downward 5 4
No revision 3 0
2001-2003
Upward 11 6
Downward 0 6
No revision 1 0
2005-2008
Upward 5 6
Downward 7 7
No revision 4 3
1998-2008
(Including the Breaks)
Upward 19 23
Downward 14 18
No revision 11 3
1998-2008
(Excluding the Breaks)
Upward 16 16
Downward 12 17
No revision 8 3

Note:
1\ Break in the 1999 and 2000
2\ Break in the 2003 and 2004

Source: NSCB

 

Posted: 17 December 2009.

 

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